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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

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Genre: Business & Economics
Author:
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
Release: 2012-11-20
File: Pages
ISBN-13: 9781623150532

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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

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Genre: Business & Economics
Author: The 30 Minute Expert Series
Publisher:
Release: 2013-03-29
File: 32 Pages
ISBN-13: 162315121X

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BOOK EXCERPT:

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

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Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
Author:
Publisher:
Release: 2012-11
File: 46 Pages
ISBN-13: 1623150523

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"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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Genre: Political Science
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
Release: 2012-09-27
File: 544 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781101595954

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In this timely manifesto, the authors of the New York Times bestseller Rework broadly reject the prevailing notion that long hours, aggressive hustle, and "whatever it takes" are required to run a successful business today. In Rework, Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson introduced a new path to working effectively. Now, they build on their message with a bold, iconoclastic strategy for creating the ideal company culture—what they call "the calm company." Their approach directly attack the chaos, anxiety, and stress that plagues millions of workplaces and hampers billions of workers every day. Long hours, an excessive workload, and a lack of sleep have become a badge of honor for modern professionals. But it should be a mark of stupidity, the authors argue. Sadly, this isn’t just a problem for large organizations—individuals, contractors, and solopreneurs are burning themselves out the same way. The answer to better productivity isn’t more hours—it’s less waste and fewer things that induce distraction and persistent stress. It’s time to stop celebrating Crazy, and start celebrating Calm, Fried and Hansson assert. Fried and Hansson have the proof to back up their argument. "Calm" has been the cornerstone of their company’s culture since Basecamp began twenty years ago. Destined to become the management guide for the next generation, It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work is a practical and inspiring distillation of their insights and experiences. It isn’t a book telling you what to do. It’s a book showing you what they’ve done—and how any manager or executive no matter the industry or size of the company, can do it too.

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Genre: Business & Economics
Author: Jason Fried
Publisher: HarperCollins
Release: 2018-10-02
File: 240 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780062874795

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A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

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Genre: Comics & Graphic Novels
Author: Neil Gaiman
Publisher: Dark Horse Comics
Release: 2016-11-30
File: 96 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781630089658

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Genre: Military intelligence
Author: Harold Martinek
Publisher:
Release: 1979
File: 70 Pages
ISBN-13: MINN:31951002882722H

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Cell Immobilisation Biotechnology Biotechnology is divided into two volumes. The first volume is dedicated to fundamental aspects of cell immobilisation while the second volume deals with the diverse applications of this technology. The first volume, Fundamentals of Cell Immobilisation Biotechnology, comprises 26 chapters arranged into four parts: Materials for cell immobilisation/encapsulation, Methods and technologies for cell immobilisation/encapsulation, Carrier characterisation and bioreactor design, and Physiology of immobilised cells: techniques and mathematical modelling.

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Genre: Science
Author: Viktor Nedovic
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release: 2004-04-30
File: 555 Pages
ISBN-13: 1402018878

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Outliers ...in 30 minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the ideas explored in Malcolm Gladwell's bestselling book, Outliers: The Story of Success. Understand the key ideas behind Outliers in a fraction of the time: •27 essential insights and takeaways •11 illustrative case studies •9 chapter-by-chapter synopses In Outliers, bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell examines the fundamentals of extraordinary success and the people who achieve it. Claiming that society pays too much attention to characteristics like intelligence and ambition in successful people and not enough to the circumstances that shape them, Gladwell argues that external forces also propel the highly successful. As demonstrated in Outliers, culture, family, demographics, chance circumstances, and hidden advantages can have as much, or more, to do with an outlier's success as IQ or drive. Throughout Outliers, Gladwell uses compelling research and fascinating case studies to demonstrate his assertion that nobody achieves success on his or her own merits. A 30 Minute Expert Summary of Outliers Designed for those whose desire to learn exceeds the time they have available, the Outliers summary helps readers quickly and easily become experts ...in 30 minutes.

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Genre: Psychology
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Publisher: Garamond Press
Release: 2012-11
File: 46 Pages
ISBN-13: 1623150361

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Centered on three themes, this book explores the latest research in plasticity in sensory systems, focusing on visual and auditory systems. It covers a breadth of recent scientific study within the field including research on healthy systems and diseased models of sensory processing. Topics include visual and visuomotor learning, models of how the brain codes visual information, sensory adaptations in vision and hearing as a result of partial or complete visual loss in childhood, plasticity in the adult visual system, and plasticity across the senses, as well as new techniques in vision recovery, rehabilitation, and sensory substitution of other senses when one sense is lost. This unique edited volume, the fruit of an International Conference on Plastic Vision held at York University, Toronto, will provide students and scientists with an overview of the ongoing research related to sensory plasticity and perspectives on the direction of future work in the field.

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Genre: Computers
Author: Jennifer K. E. Steeves
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release: 2012-12-17
File: Pages
ISBN-13: 9781139619936

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