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"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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Genre: Political Science
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
Release: 2012-09-27
File: 544 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781101595954

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Magic will break your heart. Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange... Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?

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Genre: Fiction
Author: Silvia Moreno-Garcia
Publisher: Solaris
Release: 2015-02-10
File: 272 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781849978903

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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div

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Genre: History
Author: Brian Larkin
Publisher: Duke University Press
Release: 2008-03-31
File: 313 Pages
ISBN-13: 0822341085

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A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

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Genre: Comics & Graphic Novels
Author: Neil Gaiman
Publisher: Dark Horse Comics
Release: 2016-11-30
File: 96 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781630089658

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“Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

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Genre: Mathematics
Author: Charles Wheelan
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Release: 2013-01-07
File: 302 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780393089820

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An indispensable guide for any recent graduate that provides simple, easy-to-follow rules for making smart personal finance choices during the first decade of one's career. • Demonstrates how simple choices, especially in the years after college, can guarantee (barring misfortunes such as catastrophic illness or drug addiction) a lifelong, healthy relationship with money • Illustrates how to apply the attitudes inherent in modesty, skepticism, and optimism to all financial decision-making, both upon graduating and in the future • Includes a math refresher for understanding the basic principles of interest rates, credit card debt, investment, and retirement savings • Demystifies without boring, simplifies without condescending to, and above all highlights the relevance and practical applications of financial planning during one's first ten years out of school

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Genre: Business & Economics
Author: Michael C Taylor
Publisher: ABC-CLIO
Release: 2018-04-12
File: 209 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781440861062

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'SYNC' IS A STORY OF A DAZZLING KIND OF ORDER IN THE UNIVERSE, THE HARMONY THAT COMES FROM CYCLES IN SYNC. THE TENDENCY TO SYCHRONIZE IS ONE OF THE MOST FAR- REACHING DRIVES IN ALL OF NATURE. IT EXTENDS FROM PEOPLE TO PLANETS, FROM ANIMALS TO ATOMS. IN 'SYNC' PROFESSOR STEVEN STROGATZ CONSIDERS A RANGE OF APPLICATIONS - HUMAN SLEEP AND CIRCADIAN RHYTHMS, MENSTRUAL SYNCHRONY, INSECT OUTBREAKS, SUPERCONDUCTORS, LASERS, SECRET CODES, HEART ARRHYTHMIAS AND FADS - CONNECTING ALL TRHOUGH AN EXPLORATION OF THE SAME MATHEMATICAL THEME: SELF- ORGANISATION, OR THE SPONTANEOUS EMERGENCE OF ORDER OUT OF CHAOS. FOCUSED ENOUGH TO PRESENT A COHERENT WORLD UNTO THEMSELVES, STROGATZ'S CHOSEN TOPICS TOUCH ON SEVERAL OF THE HOTTEST DIRECTIONS IN CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE.

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Genre: Mathematics
Author: Steven Strogatz
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release: 2004-04-29
File: 352 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780141933184

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'This marvellous book will transform your relationship with the numbers that swirl all around us' TIM HARFORD, author of The Undercover Economist Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. How many trees are there on the planet? Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? Why do old men have big ears? Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' NATURE 'There is something in here for everyone ... A call to arms for greater societal data literacy' FINANCIAL TIMES

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Genre: Mathematics
Author: David Spiegelhalter
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release: 2019-03-28
File: 256 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780241258750

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Noise cancellation is particularly important in the new mobile communications field, with respect to background noise and acoustic interference in moving vehicles. This comprehensive text develops a coherent and structured presentation of a broad range of the theory and application of statistical signal processing, with emphasis on digital noise reduction algorithms. Other applications covered are spectral estimation, channel equalisation, speech coding over noisy channels, speech recognition in adverse environments, active noise control, echo cancellation, restoration of lost filters, and adaptive notch filters.

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Genre: Science
Author: Saeed V. Vaseghi
Publisher: Wiley
Release: 1996-07-25
File: 416 Pages
ISBN-13: 0471958751

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A fascinating exploration of how computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind All our lives are constrained by limited space and time, limits that give rise to a particular set of problems. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favourites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such problems for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us. In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian (who holds degrees in computer science, philosophy, and poetry, and works at the intersection of all three) and Tom Griffiths (a UC Berkeley professor of cognitive science and psychology) show how the simple, precise algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living. From the Hardcover edition.

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Genre: Psychology
Author: Brian Christian
Publisher: Penguin
Release: 2016-04-26
File: 304 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780143196471

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