eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

Product Details :

Genre: Business & Economics
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
Release: 2007-04-17
File: 480 Pages
ISBN-13: 1588365832

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

Product Details :

Genre: Business & Economics
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
Release: 2010-05-11
File: 480 Pages
ISBN-13: 0679604189

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

Product Details :

Genre:
Author:
Publisher:
Release: 1949
File: Pages
ISBN-13: UCAL:B2917169

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

A black swan escapes from a cage and flies away to alight at a village by a lake. The villagers there believe that birds are harbingers of good fortune, and each year they build nests beside the lake to lure them. They ask the swan to stay and incubate an egg which was found in one of the nests.

Product Details :

Genre: Black swan
Author: Celia Bridle
Publisher:
Release: 2010
File: 30 Pages
ISBN-13: 1921136561

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

Descendants of Edward Swan also know by the name Hornsby. He was transported to Australia as a convict in 1818. His wife Mary Ann and children arrived there in 1823. The family settled in the Illawarra district.

Product Details :

Genre: New South Wales
Author: Wendy E. Nunan
Publisher:
Release: 1989
File: 517 Pages
ISBN-13: 0731637348

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.

Product Details :

Genre: Study Aids
Author: QuickRead
Publisher: QuickRead.com
Release:
File: Pages
ISBN-13:

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Product Details :

Genre: Business & Economics
Author: Eric Lybeck
Publisher: CRC Press
Release: 2017-07-05
File: 92 Pages
ISBN-13: 9781351351195

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

Thomas Mann's bold and disturbing novella, written in 1952, is the feminine counterpart of his masterpiece Death in Venice. Written from the point of view of a woman in what we might now call mid-life crisis, The Black Swan evinces Mann's mastery of psychological analysis and his compelling interest in the intersection of the physical and the spiritual in human behavior. It is startlingly relevant to current discussions of the politics of the body, male inscriptions of the feminine, and discourse about and of women. The new introduction places this dramatic novella in the context of contemporary feminist and literary concerns, bringing it to the attention of a new generation of readers.

Product Details :

Genre: Fiction
Author: Thomas Mann
Publisher: Univ of California Press
Release: 1990-10-16
File: 141 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780520070097

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

A slipcased hardback edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's bestselling masterpiece, with the original first Penguin edition artwork.What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Product Details :

Genre: Forecasting
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Books, Limited (UK)
Release: 2011
File: 444 Pages
ISBN-13: 1846145651

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>




eBook Download

BOOK EXCERPT:

New York Times bestselling author Alyssa Day introduces the League of the Black Swan--and the dangerous game one woman plays when her family's curse dooms her to kill the man she loves--in this thrilling novella. A thousand years ago, Brynn Caroll's ancestor was cursed: every third night, the eldest daughter of each generation is transformed into a black swan and forced to sing songs to the moon. When she meets the love of her life and bears him a daughter, the legacy is passed on to the next generation. Intent on ending the curse once and for all, Brynn refuses to fall in love. But she never anticipated meeting Sean O'Malley--a man who is also burdened by a difficult secret--and facing temptation like never before. Previously published in Enthralled.

Product Details :

Genre: Fiction
Author: Alyssa Day
Publisher: Penguin
Release: 2018-06-19
File: 116 Pages
ISBN-13: 9780451489746

#1 eBook Free in [pdf] [kindle] [epub] [tuebl] [mobi] [audiobook], #1 New Release 2020 >>